The war in Iran is being sold to the public as another localized Middle Eastern emergency, but it is better understood as one theater inside a much wider contest.
This is a really well thought out critique, especially the point that “Containment 2.0” might be less a rethink than a rebranding of old assumptions. The reminder that Cold War containment wasn’t as restrained or clean as it’s often remembered is important, and it’s easy to see how similar framing today could lead to the same kinds of blind spots.
What does the alternative looks like in practice? If you move away from containment as a guiding framework, how do you handle genuinely adversarial behavior without slipping into either escalation or passivity? It feels like the hardest part isn’t diagnosing the problem, but defining a strategy that avoids those historical pitfalls while still dealing with real-world constraints.
I think you hit the nail on the head with all your questions. These are the questions I’m winning to get people to consider. I have my opinions but the papers I wrote I’m trying to get people to think like this and ask the right questions! Instead of us yelling at each other over our favorite side I think this is more relevant. These policies are politically agnostic and have been taking place for years
This was a great read. It's made me nerd out a bit because I love seeing micro and macro analysis align.
One of the lenses I've been viewing the last several years of events through is Ray Dalio's thesis on the changing world order. He has a book or two floating around now. The Containment 2.0 lens seems very compatible with his, though Dalio's stuff is written at a higher level abstraction, through a historical lens.
He asserts that as a dominant power, America in this case, is challenged, that "war" will shift to broader systems pressure - trade, finance, tech, sanctions, etc. He speaks of leveraging choke points, which we've now seen with the Straight of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean, as you've pointed out.
He also emphasizes how much the internal conditions of the big players constrains their external power, like debt, demographics shift (as you pointed out), social cohesion, innovation, etc.
He also covers the preemptive securitization of resources by the established and rising powers, which you also covered.
I agree with you that these events are all tied together. Our media mostly frames these events with standard partisan narratives, which don't allow for this kind of analysis.
My area of work is AI systems, though non-military. It's all progressing at such a rapid pace. I've been trying to model how our hard power will be impacted by the rise of AI, low-cost drones, and electronic warfare. This tech introduces new forms of asymmetric warfare, such as shooting down $20,000 drones with $2 million missiles. If you have takes on this area, especially with what they're thinking with this new massive DoW budget...would be iinterested in hear.
Thanks for the feedback Ty. I’d love to chat with you sometime about your work and although I’m not familiar with Mr Dalio’s thesis I’d love to check it out. Do you have a link. Shoot me a DM and we can chat more! Great stuff!
This is a really well thought out critique, especially the point that “Containment 2.0” might be less a rethink than a rebranding of old assumptions. The reminder that Cold War containment wasn’t as restrained or clean as it’s often remembered is important, and it’s easy to see how similar framing today could lead to the same kinds of blind spots.
What does the alternative looks like in practice? If you move away from containment as a guiding framework, how do you handle genuinely adversarial behavior without slipping into either escalation or passivity? It feels like the hardest part isn’t diagnosing the problem, but defining a strategy that avoids those historical pitfalls while still dealing with real-world constraints.
I think you hit the nail on the head with all your questions. These are the questions I’m winning to get people to consider. I have my opinions but the papers I wrote I’m trying to get people to think like this and ask the right questions! Instead of us yelling at each other over our favorite side I think this is more relevant. These policies are politically agnostic and have been taking place for years
Thanks for taking the time to read for those who did. Interested in all feedback.
Hey Josh
This was a great read. It's made me nerd out a bit because I love seeing micro and macro analysis align.
One of the lenses I've been viewing the last several years of events through is Ray Dalio's thesis on the changing world order. He has a book or two floating around now. The Containment 2.0 lens seems very compatible with his, though Dalio's stuff is written at a higher level abstraction, through a historical lens.
He asserts that as a dominant power, America in this case, is challenged, that "war" will shift to broader systems pressure - trade, finance, tech, sanctions, etc. He speaks of leveraging choke points, which we've now seen with the Straight of Hormuz and the Indian Ocean, as you've pointed out.
He also emphasizes how much the internal conditions of the big players constrains their external power, like debt, demographics shift (as you pointed out), social cohesion, innovation, etc.
He also covers the preemptive securitization of resources by the established and rising powers, which you also covered.
I agree with you that these events are all tied together. Our media mostly frames these events with standard partisan narratives, which don't allow for this kind of analysis.
My area of work is AI systems, though non-military. It's all progressing at such a rapid pace. I've been trying to model how our hard power will be impacted by the rise of AI, low-cost drones, and electronic warfare. This tech introduces new forms of asymmetric warfare, such as shooting down $20,000 drones with $2 million missiles. If you have takes on this area, especially with what they're thinking with this new massive DoW budget...would be iinterested in hear.
Thanks for the feedback Ty. I’d love to chat with you sometime about your work and although I’m not familiar with Mr Dalio’s thesis I’d love to check it out. Do you have a link. Shoot me a DM and we can chat more! Great stuff!